UBS Securities predicts Amazon AWS revenue to reach $500M this year

So far Amazon has been very quiet about the financial results of its Web Services (AWS) business division. In its Q2 2010 earnings call the company didn’t provide a breakdown of the revenue and not a single financial analyst in the call pushed the CEO or the CFO to disclose some hard numbers about EC2 and S3.

So it’s with a lot of interest that the market is reading a financial forecast about AWS published today by UBS Securities.

The investment firm reports:

AWS revenue has been relatively immaterial compared with overall AMZN revenue, but this is starting to change. We estimate AWS revenues of $500MM in 2010 and $750MM in 2011, in a $5-6B market growing to $15-20B by 2014 (roughly 35% CAGR). EPS is $0.13 in F2010 and $0.22 in F2011. Using 4.5-5.0x EV/Sales, this yields a $3.4-3.8B valuation for AWS (roughly $7-8 a share).